Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1405-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1405-2026
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17 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 17 Aug 2026

Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes

William J. M. Seviour, Justin Finkel, Philip Rupp, Regan Mudhar, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Eun-Pa Lim, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gabriele Messori, Gerbrand Koren, Michael Sigmond, Isla R. Simpson, and Seok-Woo Son

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Editorial statement
Quantifying the contribution of stratospheric processes to extreme weather events is a challenge. This study breaks new ground in the quantitative attribution of weather extremes to dynamical processes in the stratosphere. It applies two complementary statistical indicators (relative risk and quantile shift) to a coordinated set of experiments with several models to study the role of the stratosphere in three detailed case studies. The paper has the potential to be an authoritative study in this area due to its combination of rigor, depth and range of impacts.
Short summary
Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres, we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.
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