Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1479-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1479-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
24 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 24 Aug 2026

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on cool-season precipitation variability in the arid Middle East

Andries-Jan de Vries, Steven B. Feldstein, Jake W. Casselman, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Jos Lelieveld, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

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Short summary
Precipitation in the arid Middle East experiences large yearly variation with direct relevance to drought and flooding. This study quantifies the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Middle East precipitation variability at local and regional scales during the cool season. Three mechanisms contribute to precipitation anomalies: a meridional shift in the subtropical jet, a barotropic Rossby wave response in the extratropics, and a baroclinic response in the regional tropical circulation.
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