Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1593-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1593-2026
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31 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 31 Aug 2026

The impact of stochastic sea ice perturbations on seasonal forecasts

Kristian Strommen, Michael Mayer, Andrea Storto, Jonas Spaeth, and Steffen Tietsche

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Editorial statement
This study describes the implementation and evaluation of a stochastically perturbed parameter (SPP) scheme applied to the sea ice component of ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System (IFS). Applying the SPP scheme in seasonal forecasts enhances ensemble spread for both sea ice concentration and thickness by approximately 10%. The study then concisely catalogues atmospheric effects of introducing stochastic sea ice perturbations and shows that they improve seasonal forecast skill beyond the Arctic region, in particular in Europe during winter. Hypotheses are well presented and tested with different experiments, statistical tests, and toy models.
Short summary
Numerical weather forecasts of sea ice are unreliable, exhibiting an overly narrow range of plausible sea ice evolutions. Stochastic perturbations introduce randomness to the forecast in order to alleviate this by representing uncertainties in the representation of sea ice physics. We show that including such perturbations in a forecast model improves the reliability of sea ice forecasts, and furthermore results in improved seasonal forecasts of the northern European winter circulation.
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