Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2213-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2213-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2026
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2026
| 09 Nov 2026
Dynamical precursors to summer temperature extremes on the Antarctic Peninsula
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth, Environment and Sustainability, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Amanda C. Maycock
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth, Environment and Sustainability, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Andrew N. Ross
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth, Environment and Sustainability, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Ryan S. Williams
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Thomas J. Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
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William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
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Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, and Keith P. Shine
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During winter, a brief but abrupt reversal of the mean stratospheric westerly flow (~30 km high) around the Arctic occurs ~6 times a decade. Using a chemistry–climate model, about half of these events are shown to induce large anomalies in Arctic ozone (>25 %) and water vapour (>±25 %) around ~8–12 km altitude for up to 2–3 months, important for weather forecasting. We also calculate a doubling to trebling of the risk in breaches of mid-latitude surface air quality (ozone) standards (~60 ppbv).
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 817–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, 2023
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There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
William Stanley Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris Short
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1272, 2023
Preprint archived
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Two types of fluctuations were studied in Hurricane Irma (2017) using model simulations. The first type of fluctuation, the eyewall replacement cycle, has a Hurricane’s eyewall replaced by a second outer eyewall that develops further out. The other type of fluctuation has no replacement of the eyewall but a disruption to its structure instead.
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
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We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Thomas Caton Harrison, Stavroula Biri, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John C. King, Elizabeth C. Kent, Étienne Vignon, and John Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1415–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, 2022
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Easterly winds encircle Antarctica, impacting sea ice and helping drive ocean currents which shield ice shelves from warmer waters. Reanalysis datasets give us our most complete picture of how these winds behave. In this paper we use satellite data, surface measurements and weather balloons to test how realistic recent reanalysis estimates are. The winds are generally accurate, especially in the most recent of the datasets, but important short-term variations are often misrepresented.
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Short summary
This study aims to advance understanding of the atmospheric drivers of extreme warm days across the Antarctic Peninsula during summer. We find that these days are linked to a range of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Using a statistical method, we grouped similar events and compared their wind, temperature and pressure features, showing clear differences spatially and temporally. Understanding these dynamics improves understanding of the processes that drive these extreme events.
This study aims to advance understanding of the atmospheric drivers of extreme warm days across...
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