Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 24 Feb 2026
| 24 Feb 2026
The role of the stratospheric state in upward wave flux prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: a SNAPSI analysis
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Amy H. Butler
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Peter Hitchcock
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Chaim I. Garfinkel
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Zac D. Lawrence
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Wuhan Ning
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Philip Rupp
Faculty of Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, SUNY Albany, Albany, USA
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Natalia Calvo
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Alvaro de la Cámara
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Martin Jucker
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Gerbrand Koren
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Daniel De Maeseneire
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Gloria L. Manney
NorthWest Research Associates, Seattle, USA
New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, USA
Marisol Osman
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina
CONICET – Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
CNRS – IRD – CONICET – UBA, Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios sobre el Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Masakazu Taguchi
Department of Earth Science, Aichi University of Education, Kariya, Japan
Cory Barton
Space Science Division, US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, USA
Dong-Chan Hong
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul,, South Korea
Yu-Kyung Hyun
Forecast Technology Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Jeff Knight
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Piero Malguzzi
CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy
Daniele Mastrangelo
CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy
Jiyoung Oh
Forecast Technology Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea
Inna Polichtchouk
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Jadwiga H. Richter
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Isla R. Simpson
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Seok-Woo Son
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul,, South Korea
Damien Specq
Météo-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM, Toulouse, France
Tim Stockdale
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Data sets
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts (https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/0a5a1ce22fb047749e040879efa8e9b5) P. Hitchcock et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are known to follow a sustained wave dissipation in the stratosphere, which depends on both the tropospheric and stratospheric states. However, the relative role of each state is still unclear. Using a new set of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, we show that the stratospheric state does not drastically affect the precursors of three recent SSWs, but modulates the stratospheric wave activity, with impacts depending on SSW features.
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are known to follow a sustained wave dissipation in the...
