Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Concurrent heat waves and their linkage to large-scale meridional heat transports through planetary-scale waves
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- Final revised paper (published on 06 Mar 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 16 May 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2189', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Jun 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
- AC4: 'ERRATA: Reply on RC1', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2189', Aspen Morgan, 12 Jun 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2189', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Jun 2025
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AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
- AC5: 'ERRATA: Reply on RC2', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
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AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Valerio Lembo, 26 Jun 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Valerio Lembo on behalf of the Authors (07 Oct 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Oct 2025) by Christian Grams
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (07 Nov 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Dec 2025) by Christian Grams
AR by Valerio Lembo on behalf of the Authors (21 Jan 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (13 Feb 2026) by Christian Grams
AR by Valerio Lembo on behalf of the Authors (21 Feb 2026)
Author's response
Manuscript
General comment
This paper investigates the connection between the occurrence of hemisphere-scale land surface temperature anomalies and the hemisphere-scale eddy meridional heat transport. One important and somewhat counter-intuitive result seems to be that often a small or even negative eddy heat transport is associated with co-occurring land surface heatwaves on the hemisphere. It would be interesting to put forth a hypothesis regarding the mechanism why this could or should be the case, and then use statistical analysis to support such a hypothesis. But that is not the topic of this paper.
Instead, the reader is offered a complex and detailed analysis of statistical connections between the meridional heat transport and the geographical patterns of several meteorological variables that appear when conditioning on extremes of this heat transport. The text and the plots in the result sections are meant to convince the reader that this analysis was done properly and they describe the geographical fields resulting from the analysis. I do not doubt that this was done OK. At the same time, it remained unclear to me what I am supposed to learn. In other words: what is the science question that you address?
To be sure, the authors make strong claims as to what their results mean, but I was not convinced by their arguments. In particular, I found bold causal inferences in the interpretation of the results, which in my eyes cannot be made based on a purely statistical analysis. When stripping away these causal claims, the reader is left with a number of statistical associations, but (as I said before) I was left wondering why these are interesting or important and in what sense they contribute to an understanding. That’s too bad, because the title says that enhanced “understanding” is the main point of the paper. My perceived lack of new insight weighs even more strongly given my feeling that the key question (see my first paragraph) remains unaddressed and unanswered. It may well be that this manuscript contains important insight, but it was impossible for me to recognize it from the current presentation. My central question is: what does this manuscript contribute to our understanding of hemisphere-scale land surface heat anomalies?
Possibly there is a hint at the underlying science question on line 48, namely that the authors “seek to understand how concurrent heatwaves…. are linked to extremes in planetary-scale Rossby wave anomalies….”, but in my eyes this goal is not achieved. The authors at best describe that concurrent heatwaves are linked to extremes in the meridional heat transport, but in my judgment this does not result in a deeper “understanding how” this works. In other words, the authors fall short of the goal set by themselves.
In addition, I have an issue with the part of the interpretation that concerns the occurrence of “troughs” and “ridges” on anomaly plots: a negative anomaly in pressure or geopotential does not necessarily imply a trough, it may just as well be a weaker-than-normal ridge. A similar issue is related to the occurrence and strength of jets.
Given my evaluation, I am skeptical that anything resembling this manuscript would be a useful scientific contribution to the field. I have a large number of detailed comments below which may help to clarify my criticism and which raise numerous further issues. Overall, I cannot recommend that this paper should be published in WCD.
Specific comments:
Line 29: How can an “episode” be related to a “frequency”?
Line 38: I find this formulation misleading: in what sense is resonance “facilitated” by the underlying conditions? It seems to me that your “underlying conditions” are simply the forcing for the waves, which (under specific conditions) undergo resonant amplification.
Line 44/45: what is the difference between “dynamical drivers” and a “process-based investigation”. To my taste this section contains too much jargon, and moreover I would welcome a more precise distinction between this work and previous work. Do you mean that your work merely analyses statistical connections rather than investigating the underlying dynamics? The latter could involve, e.g., linking observed phenomena with the underlying equations.
Line 63: what is a “rectilinear grid”, given that your domain is spherical?
Line 88, “correction for the wavenumber 0”: can you explain in a little more detail? What is the “zonal circulation”? You talk about a “vertical and meridional mean transport”, but isn’t the key here that you are considering a zonal mean transport?
Line 91: not clear to me what the word “this” refers to.
Line 99: Does table 1 refer to MHTs including all zonal wavenumbers?
Line 104: At first it did not become clear to me how you perform the “spatial average” of daily anomalies. Do you take the absolute value of an anomaly before you perform the spatial average? If not, warm and cold anomalies might cancel to a large extent. I presume that you do NOT take the absolute value, and that’s probably a main point of your analysis, but this should be made very clear to the reader.
Line 111: “Impact of MHT extremes on LST extremes”: this phrase is misleading, since it suggests that you can make a statement about causality…. which you cannot, based on a purely statistical analysis alone (see J. Pearl: The book of why). Correlation does not imply causation! Similarly on line 157 where you promise a “process-based understanding of mechanisms”, which would imply that you can distinguish cause and effect.
Line 111: What is a 2D-field at a grid point?
Line 114: “composite mean of such quantities”: not clear to me.
Table 2 and thereafter: is “LST | MHT” simply the number of cooccurring LST and MHT events?
Table 2: the last row contains bold-face entries with less than 10%, which seems to contradict the table caption.
Line140: given that according to Table 2 about 91.5% of all negative MHT extreme events in JJA are NOT associated with positive extreme LST events, it is not clear to me why the selection of events in the composites of Fig 1 is meaningful.
Line 146: It seems far-fetched to associate one single local pressure anomaly with the PNA pattern.
Line 147: “with respect to JJA”?
Line 148, “Accordingly”: how should the features on the LST plot associate with the features on the SLP plot? For me (not having read your previous papers) this is not obvious. Later in line 150 you state that this is somewhat “counterintuitive”.
Line 149 (and similarly in the abstract line 7), “….two deep troughs”: a negative SLP anomaly is not necessarily a trough, it may just as well be a weaker-than-normal ridge.
Line 151, “suppression of meridional exchange”: this seems to conflict with the fact that these plots are conditioned on events with extreme (negative) MHT: can you explain to the reader who has little experience with your previous work?!
Figure 1: I would appreciate axis labels with the respective longitude and latitude.
Line 156: it is not clear to me how this plot indicates the location and/or the strength of the jets.
Line 165: what is a “statistical simulation”?
Line 165, “the above mechanisms”: you just provided descriptions, I would not consider this as elucidating “mechanisms”.
Line 169: the paper that you refer to does NOT associated the actual episode of the Pacific heatwaves with resonance (rather, the authors associate a precursor event with resonance).
Line 178: It is not clear to me how you infer “blocking” from just looking at SLP anomaly patterns. What is your definition of “blocking”?
Line 187: how do you see a “branch of the jet stream” in a plot of wind-anomalies?
Fig 3a: Hovmoeller Plots? I can only see one plot. Also, it would be desirable to use a color scheme that clearly distinguishes positive from negative values.
Line 191: what would be a typical climatological value?
Fig 3b: what is the dashed line in that panel?
Line 192: at this point it is not clear (to me) how negative MHT can contribute to a local heat wave.
Line 196: “triggering” suggests a cause-and-effect relation, which however cannot be established from such a plot
Discussion of Fig 3: fine, but what am I supposed to learn from it?
Line 200, “was enhanced by a strong blocking…”: this was NOT shown
Line 219: it seems impossible to infer a “prerequisite” from just a single case.
Line 221, “fueled by”: what does this mean? A causal connection? Is the blocking caused by jet bifurcation, or is the jet bifurcation caused by the blocking, or are both caused by something else?
Line 222, 223: similar concerns (“enhance”, “trigger”)
Line 257: do you really select a “case study” (or maybe rather a case)?
Fig 8 called before Fig 7?
Lines 282/283: how can a reduced MHT be associated with energy convergence into the Arctic?
Line 297, “Jetstream bifurcation” is misleading, since the figure shows anomalies. In other words, the “bifurcation” may be part of the climatology and only be slightly stronger or weaker during the considered episodes.
Line 303 (and also abstract line 7), “location of troughs and ridges”: again (like above), a map that shows anomalies cannot make a statement about the location of troughs and ridges. In other words: a weaker-than-normal ridge is not necessarily a trough.
Line 315, “leads to”: do you imply a causal connection?
Line 321, “results in”: ditto.
Line 344: here it is not clear what is conditioned on what.
Line 348, “sufficiently strong to cause….”: how does this causal chain work? Do you ever in this paper give an explanation, or provide at least a hypothesis?