Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-597-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-597-2026
Research article
 | 
16 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 16 Apr 2026

A combined storyline-statistical approach for conditional extreme event attribution

Dalena León-FonFay, Alexander Lemburg, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Frauke Feser

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4976', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Oct 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Dalena Leon, 08 Dec 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4976', István Dunkl, 21 Nov 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Dalena Leon, 08 Dec 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Dalena León-FonFay on behalf of the Authors (12 Dec 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 Jan 2026) by Camille Li
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Jan 2026)
RR by István Dunkl (03 Feb 2026)
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (17 Feb 2026) by Camille Li
AR by Dalena León-FonFay on behalf of the Authors (06 Mar 2026)  Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Mar 2026) by Camille Li
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (19 Mar 2026)
RR by István Dunkl (23 Mar 2026)
EF by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner (18 Mar 2026)  Author's response 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (01 Apr 2026) by Camille Li
AR by Dalena León-FonFay on behalf of the Authors (07 Apr 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Short summary
We combine physical (spectrally nudged storylines) and statistical (flow-analogue) approaches to assess how global warming alters the intensity and likelihood of past extreme events. Conditioning on circulation reduces dynamical uncertainty. For the 2018 Central European heatwave, the pattern stays equally likely but analogue events increase in frequency and intensity with warming, highlighting additional mechanisms influencing future heatwaves beyond circulation and background thermodynamics.
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