Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-597-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-597-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
16 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 16 Apr 2026

A combined storyline-statistical approach for conditional extreme event attribution

Dalena León-FonFay, Alexander Lemburg, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Frauke Feser

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Short summary
We combine physical (spectrally nudged storylines) and statistical (flow-analogue) approaches to assess how global warming alters the intensity and likelihood of past extreme events. Conditioning on circulation reduces dynamical uncertainty. For the 2018 Central European heatwave, the pattern stays equally likely but analogue events increase in frequency and intensity with warming, highlighting additional mechanisms influencing future heatwaves beyond circulation and background thermodynamics.
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