Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-767-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-767-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
12 May 2026
Research article |  | 12 May 2026

A spread-versus-error framework to reliably quantify the potential for subseasonal windows of forecast opportunity

Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, and Thomas Birner

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Short summary
Weather forecasts several weeks ahead are uncertain, but this uncertainty itself can change depending on large-scale atmospheric conditions. We present a new way to measure how well forecasts capture these changes in uncertainty. Our results show that reliability of uncertainty varies strongly with region and is linked to slow, predictable patterns in the atmosphere. These findings help identify periods when forecasts are more trustworthy.
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