Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-787-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-787-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
19 May 2026
Research article |  | 19 May 2026

Impacts of tropical forecast errors on two extreme precipitation events: insights from relaxation experiments using machine-learning weather prediction models

Siyu Li, Juliana Dias, Benjamin Moore, and Julian Quinting

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Short summary
Weather forecasts weeks to months ahead, called subseasonal forecasts, help communities prepare for floods or droughts but are hard to make accurately. We tested a method called relaxation, which nudges parts of a model to see how different regions affect predictions. Using two machine learning models and a traditional model, we found the machine learning models performed better. Relaxation offers a simple, low-cost way to improve future forecasts.
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