Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-787-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-787-2026
Research article
 | 
19 May 2026
Research article |  | 19 May 2026

Impacts of tropical forecast errors on two extreme precipitation events: insights from relaxation experiments using machine-learning weather prediction models

Siyu Li, Juliana Dias, Benjamin Moore, and Julian Quinting

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Cited articles

Ben Bouallègue, Z., Clare, M. C., Magnusson, L., Gascón, E., Maier-Gerber, M., Janoušek, M., Rodwell, M., Pinault, F., Dramsch, J. S., Lang, S. T., Raoult, B., Rabier, F., Chevallier, M., Sandu, I., Dueben, P., Chantry, M., and Pappenberger, F.: The rise of data-driven weather forecasting: A first statistical assessment of machine learning–based weather forecasts in an operational-like context, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105, E864–E883, 2024. a
Bi, K., Xie, L., Zhang, H., Chen, X., Gu, X., and Tian, Q.: Pangu-weather: A 3d high-resolution model for fast and accurate global weather forecast, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2211.02556, 2022. a, b, c
Bouallègue, Z. B.: Accuracy versus activity, ECMWF, https://doi.org/10.21957/8b50609a0f, 2024. a
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527, 2008. a
Chen, L., Zhong, X., Li, H., Wu, J., Lu, B., Chen, D., Xie, S.-P., Wu, L., Chao, Q., Lin, C., Hu, X., and Qi, Y.: A machine learning model that outperforms conventional global subseasonal forecast models, Nat. Commun., 15, 6425, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50714-1, 2024. a
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Short summary
Weather forecasts weeks to months ahead, called subseasonal forecasts, help communities prepare for floods or droughts but are hard to make accurately. We tested a method called relaxation, which nudges parts of a model to see how different regions affect predictions. Using two machine learning models and a traditional model, we found the machine learning models performed better. Relaxation offers a simple, low-cost way to improve future forecasts.
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