Mechanisms and predictability of sudden  stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Statnaia, Irina A.; Karpechko, Alexey Y.; Järvinen, Heikki J.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020

Articles | Volume 1, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 1, issue 2

Research article

|

27 Oct 2020

Research article |

| 27 Oct 2020

Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Irina A. Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen

Data sets

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Short summary

In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.