Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020
Research article
 | 
27 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2020

Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Irina A. Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen

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Latest update: 24 Jun 2024
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Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.