Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020

Research article 27 Oct 2020

Research article | 27 Oct 2020

Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Irina A. Statnaia et al.

Related authors

Ensemble prediction using a new dataset of ECMWF initial states – OpenEnsemble 1.0
Pirkka Ollinaho, Glenn D. Carver, Simon T. K. Lang, Lauri Tuppi, Madeleine Ekblom, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2143-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2143-2021, 2021
Short summary
Minimal impact of model biases on northern hemisphere ENSO teleconnections
Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-59,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-59, 2020
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Necessary conditions for algorithmic tuning of weather prediction models using OpenIFS as an example
Lauri Tuppi, Pirkka Ollinaho, Madeleine Ekblom, Vladimir Shemyakin, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5799–5812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5799-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5799-2020, 2020
Short summary
Roll vortices induce new particle formation bursts in the planetary boundary layer
Janne Lampilahti, Hanna Elina Manninen, Katri Leino, Riikka Väänänen, Antti Manninen, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Tuomo Nieminen, Matti Leskinen, Joonas Enroth, Marja Bister, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Juha Kangasluoma, Heikki Järvinen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petäjä, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11841–11854, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11841-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric teleconnections incl. stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions in idealised baroclinic life cycles
Philip Rupp and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 111–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
The Wave Geometry of Final Stratospheric Warming Events
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-63,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-63, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
Short summary
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitations and storm track variability in southeast Canada and the northeast United States
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Albers, J. R. and Birner, T.: Vortex Preconditioning due to Planetary and Gravity Waves prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4028–4054, https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-14-0026.1, 2014. 
Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/, last access: 23 October 2020. 
Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Garrido-Perez, J. M., Abalos, M., de la Cámara, A., García-Herrera, R., Calvo, N., and Ordóñez, C.: Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079802, 2018. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 30937–30946, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900445, 1999. 
Barrett, B. S.: Connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and surface temperatures in winter 2018 over eastern North America, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 20, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.869, 2019. 
Download
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.