Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
Research article
27 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2020

Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Irina A. Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen

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Cited articles

Albers, J. R. and Birner, T.: Vortex Preconditioning due to Planetary and Gravity Waves prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4028–4054,, 2014. 
Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), available at:, last access: 23 October 2020. 
Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Garrido-Perez, J. M., Abalos, M., de la Cámara, A., García-Herrera, R., Calvo, N., and Ordóñez, C.: Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646,, 2018. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 30937–30946,, 1999. 
Barrett, B. S.: Connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and surface temperatures in winter 2018 over eastern North America, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 20, 1–8,, 2019. 
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.