Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, 2021
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, 2021

Research article 04 Nov 2021

Research article | 04 Nov 2021

Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe

Constantin Ardilouze et al.

Data sets

RA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut

Short summary
Forecasting temperature patterns beyond 2 weeks is very challenging, although occasionally, forecasts show more skill over Europe. Our study indicates that the level of skill varies concurrently for two distinct forecast systems. It also shows that higher skill occurs when forecasts are issued during specific patterns of atmospheric circulation that tend to be particularly persistent. These results could help forecasters estimate a priori how trustworthy extended-range forecasts will be.