Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Research article
 | 
04 Nov 2021
Research article |  | 04 Nov 2021

Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe

Constantin Ardilouze, Damien Specq, Lauriane Batté, and Christophe Cassou

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Short summary
Forecasting temperature patterns beyond 2 weeks is very challenging, although occasionally, forecasts show more skill over Europe. Our study indicates that the level of skill varies concurrently for two distinct forecast systems. It also shows that higher skill occurs when forecasts are issued during specific patterns of atmospheric circulation that tend to be particularly persistent. These results could help forecasters estimate a priori how trustworthy extended-range forecasts will be.
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