Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021

Research article 04 Nov 2021

Research article | 04 Nov 2021

Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe

Constantin Ardilouze et al.

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Cited articles

Ardilouze, C., Batté, L., and Déqué, M.: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave, Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 115–121, 2017. a
Bach, E., Motesharrei, S., Kalnay, E., and Ruiz-Barradas, A.: Local Atmosphere–Ocean Predictability: Dynamical Origins, Lead Times, and Seasonality, J. Climate, 32, 7507–7519, 2019. a
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, 1987. a
Batté, L. and Déqué, M.: Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2055–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016, 2016. a
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527, 2008. a
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Short summary
Forecasting temperature patterns beyond 2 weeks is very challenging, although occasionally, forecasts show more skill over Europe. Our study indicates that the level of skill varies concurrently for two distinct forecast systems. It also shows that higher skill occurs when forecasts are issued during specific patterns of atmospheric circulation that tend to be particularly persistent. These results could help forecasters estimate a priori how trustworthy extended-range forecasts will be.