Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021

Research article 04 Nov 2021

Research article | 04 Nov 2021

Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe

Constantin Ardilouze et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2021-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jul 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Constantin Ardilouze, 04 Sep 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on wcd-2021-32', Daniela Domeisen, 27 Jul 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Constantin Ardilouze, 04 Sep 2021

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Constantin Ardilouze on behalf of the Authors (06 Sep 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Sep 2021) by Michael Riemer
RR by Daniela Domeisen (20 Sep 2021)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (01 Oct 2021)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Oct 2021) by Michael Riemer
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Short summary
Forecasting temperature patterns beyond 2 weeks is very challenging, although occasionally, forecasts show more skill over Europe. Our study indicates that the level of skill varies concurrently for two distinct forecast systems. It also shows that higher skill occurs when forecasts are issued during specific patterns of atmospheric circulation that tend to be particularly persistent. These results could help forecasters estimate a priori how trustworthy extended-range forecasts will be.