Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-971-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-971-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
25 Oct 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 25 Oct 2021
| 25 Oct 2021
A dynamical adjustment perspective on extreme event attribution
Laurent Terray
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projections of future anthropogenic climate change in Switzerland using multi-GCM modeling M. Kobuliev 10.1007/s40808-022-01675-1
- Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean sea surface temperature to extreme land precipitation: the case of storm Alex L. Terray & M. Bador 10.1088/2752-5295/adaa0d
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
- A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe C. Deser & A. Phillips 10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
- A Storyline Approach to the June 2021 Northwestern North American Heatwave L. Terray 10.1029/2022GL101640
- Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere K. Ma et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6
- Impact of Internal Climate Variability on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature Trends Over Eurasia in the CESM1 Large Ensemble H. Gong et al. 10.1029/2021JD035340
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
- Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event J. Wang et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi2714
- Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.03.002
- Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method R. Noyelle et al. 10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025
- Attribution of the concurrent extreme heatwaves in Northern Europe and Northeast Asia in July 2018 K. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107506
- The Unprecedented Late-Summer 2023 Heatwave in Southeastern South America: Attribution and future projection of similar events W. Kim et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100772
- The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution F. Feser & T. Shepherd 10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6
- Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe J. Singh et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7
- Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia H. Gong et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adq9461
- Identifying probabilistic weather regimes targeted to a local-scale impact variable F. Spuler et al. 10.1017/eds.2024.29
- Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2
- Land-atmosphere coupling amplified the record-breaking heatwave at altitudes above 5000 meters on the Tibetan Plateau in July 2022 K. Gui et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100717
- Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation F. Collet et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025
- Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia Y. Hu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc293
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate J. Boé et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785
- Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study R. Bonnet et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adc
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07689-6
- Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change J. Zeder & E. Fischer 10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
- Contrast responses of strong and weak winter extreme cold events in the Northern Hemisphere to global warming Y. He et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06822-7
- Quantifying the contribution of atmospheric circulation to precipitation variability and changes in the US Great Plains and southwest using self-organizing map–analogue Y. Zhuang & R. Fu 10.5194/acp-24-1641-2024
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projections of future anthropogenic climate change in Switzerland using multi-GCM modeling M. Kobuliev 10.1007/s40808-022-01675-1
- Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean sea surface temperature to extreme land precipitation: the case of storm Alex L. Terray & M. Bador 10.1088/2752-5295/adaa0d
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
- A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe C. Deser & A. Phillips 10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
- A Storyline Approach to the June 2021 Northwestern North American Heatwave L. Terray 10.1029/2022GL101640
- Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere K. Ma et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6
- Impact of Internal Climate Variability on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature Trends Over Eurasia in the CESM1 Large Ensemble H. Gong et al. 10.1029/2021JD035340
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
- Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event J. Wang et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi2714
- Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.03.002
- Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method R. Noyelle et al. 10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025
- Attribution of the concurrent extreme heatwaves in Northern Europe and Northeast Asia in July 2018 K. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107506
- The Unprecedented Late-Summer 2023 Heatwave in Southeastern South America: Attribution and future projection of similar events W. Kim et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100772
- The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution F. Feser & T. Shepherd 10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6
- Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe J. Singh et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7
- Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia H. Gong et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adq9461
- Identifying probabilistic weather regimes targeted to a local-scale impact variable F. Spuler et al. 10.1017/eds.2024.29
- Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2
- Land-atmosphere coupling amplified the record-breaking heatwave at altitudes above 5000 meters on the Tibetan Plateau in July 2022 K. Gui et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100717
- Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation F. Collet et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025
- Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia Y. Hu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc293
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate J. Boé et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785
- Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study R. Bonnet et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adc
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07689-6
- Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change J. Zeder & E. Fischer 10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
- Contrast responses of strong and weak winter extreme cold events in the Northern Hemisphere to global warming Y. He et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06822-7
- Quantifying the contribution of atmospheric circulation to precipitation variability and changes in the US Great Plains and southwest using self-organizing map–analogue Y. Zhuang & R. Fu 10.5194/acp-24-1641-2024
Latest update: 09 Oct 2025
Short summary
Attribution of the causes of extreme temperature events has become active research due to the wide-ranging impacts of recent heat waves and cold spells. Here we show that a purely observational approach based on atmospheric circulation analogues and resampling provides a robust quantification of the various dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to specific extreme temperature events. The approach can easily be integrated in the toolbox of any real-time extreme event attribution system.
Attribution of the causes of extreme temperature events has become active research due to the...
