Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and
Codron, F.: Winter in 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010.
Cleveland, R. B., Cleveland, W. S., McRae, J. E., and Terpennings, I.: A
Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess, J. Off.
Stat., Vol. 6, 3–73, 1990.
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones,
P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data
Sets. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200,
2018.
Deser, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Forced and internal components
of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50
years: Mechanisms and implications, J. Climate, 29, 2237–2258,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1, 2016.
Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Simpson, I. R., Rosenbloom, N., Coleman, D.,
Lehner, F., Pendergrass, A., DiNezio, P., and Stevenson, S.: Isolating the
Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New
CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource, J. Climate, 33, 7835–7858,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1, 2020.
Dole, R., Hoerling, M., Perlwitz, J., Eischeid, J., Pegion, P., Zhang, T.,
Quan, X.-W., Xu, T., and Murray, D.: Was there a basis for anticipating the
2010 Russian heat wave?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046582, 2011.
Drouard, M. and Woollings, T.: Contrasting mechanisms of summer blocking
over western Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12040–12048,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079894, 2018.
Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D., and Tebaldi, C.: The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016.
Gong, H., Wang, L., Chen, W., and Wu, R.: Attribution of the East Asian
Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and
Internal Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10874–10881,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084154, 2019.
Guan, X., Huang, J., Guo, R., and Pu, L.: The role of dynamically induced
variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern
Hemisphere, Sci. Rep., 5, 12669, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12669, 2015.
Guo, R., Deser, C., Terray, L., and Lehner, F.: Human influence on winter
precipitation trends (1921–2015) over North America and Eurasia revealed by
dynamical adjustment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3426–3434, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081316, 2019.
Hawkins, E., Frame, D., Harrington, L., Joshi, M., King, A., Rojas, M., and
Sutton, R.: Observed emergence of the climate change signal: From the
familiar to the unknown, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086259, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259, 2020.
Hegerl, G. and Zwiers, F.: Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change, WIREs Clim. Change, 2, 570–591, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.121, 2011.
Horton, D., Johnson, N., Singh, D., Swain, D. L., Rajaratnam, B., and
Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation
patterns to extreme temperature trends, Nature, 522, 465–469,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14550, 2015.
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal trends in the north-atlantic oscillation: Regional
temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676, 1995.
Jahn, M.: Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional
impact models, Weather Clim. Extrem., 10, 29–39,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.005, 2015.
Jézéquel, A., Cattiaux, J., Naveau, P., Radanovics, S., Ribes, A.,
Vautard, R., Vrac, M. and Yiou, P.: Trends of atmospheric circulation during
singular hot days in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 054007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab5da, 2018.
Jézéquel, A., Bevacqua, E., d'Andrea, F., Thao, S., Vautard, R.,
Vrac, M., and Yiou, P.: Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days
in Europe Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 064018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd, 2020.
Lehner, F., Deser, C., and Terray, L.: Toward a New Estimate of “Time of
Emergence” of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and
a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble, J. Climate, 30, 7739–7756,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1, 2017.
Lehner, F., Deser, C., Simpson, I., and Terray, L.: Attributing the US
Southwest's recent shift into drier conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6251–6261, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078312, 2018.
Lloyd, E. A. and Shepherd, T. G.: Environmental catastrophes, climate change,
and attribution, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1469, 105–124, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14308, 2020.
McCarthy, G., Frajka-Williams, E., Johns, W. E., Baringer, M. O., Meinen, C. S., Bryden, H. L., Rayner, D., Duchez, A., Roberts, C., and Cunningham, S. A.: Observed interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5
∘ N. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052933, 2012.
Meredith, E., Semenov, V., Maraun, D., Park, W., and Chernokulsky, A.V.: Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme, Nat. Geosci., 8, 615–619, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2483, 2015.
Merrifield, A., Lehner, F., Xie, S.-P., and Deser, C.: Removing circulation
effects to assess central U.S. land-atmosphere interactions in the CESM
Large Ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9938–9946, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074831, 2017.
Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., van Heerwaarden, C. C., and de Arellano, J.
V.-G.: Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and
atmospheric heat accumulation, Nat. Geosci., 7, 345–349,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2141, 2014.
O'Reilly, C. H., Woollings, T., and Zanna, L.: The dynamical influence of
the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on continental climate, J. Climate,
30, 7213–7230, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0345.1, 2017.
Osborn, T. J.: Winter 2009/2010 temperatures and a record-breaking North
Atlantic Oscillation index. Weather, 66, 19–21, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.660, 2011.
Otto, F. E. L.: Attribution of Weather and Climate Events, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 42, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847, 2017.
Otto, F. E. L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Jones, R. G., and Allen,
M. R.: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat
wave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050422, 2012.
Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking
for co-located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on
(sub-)daily time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12807,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052261, 2012.
Quinting, J. F. and Reeder, M. J.: Southeastern Australian Heat Waves from
a Trajectory Viewpoint, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 4109–4125, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0165.1, 2017.
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C.,
Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70 000 in Europe
during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 331, 171–178,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001, 2008.
Rohde, R., Muller, A., Jacobsen, R., Muller, E., Perlmutter. S., Rosenfeld, A., Wurtele, J., Groom, D., and Wickham, C.: A New
Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to
2011, Geoinfor. Geostat.: An Overview, 1, 20–100, https://doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000101, 2013.
Saffioti, C., Fischer, E. M., Scherrer, S. C., and Knutti, R.: Reconciling
observed and modelled temperature and precipitation trends over Europe by
adjusting for circulation variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8189–8198,
2016.
Sato, T. and Nakamura, T.: Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate
change and land–atmosphere interactions, Sci. Rep., 9, 10866, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47291-5, 2019.
Schär, C. and Kröner, N.: Sequential Factor Separation for the Analysis of Numerical Model Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 1471–1484, doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0284.1, 2017.
Schneidereit, A., Schubert, S., Vargin, P., Lunkeit, F., Zhu, X., Peters,
D., and Fraedrich, K.: Large scale flow and the long-lasting blocking high
over Russia: Summer 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 2967–2981, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00249.1, 2012.
Shaltout, M. and Omstedt, A.: Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea, Oceanologia, 56, 411–443,
https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.56-3.411, 2014.
Shepherd, T. G.: A common framework for approaches to extreme event
attribution, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2, 28–38, 2016.
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., and Zenghelis, D. A.: Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change, Climatic Change, 151, 555–571, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9, 2018.
Sippel, S., Meinshausen, N., Merrifield, A., Lehner, F., Pendergrass, A. G.,
Fischer, E. M., and Knutti, R.: Uncovering the forced climate response from
a single ensemble member using statistical learning, J. Climate, 32,
5677–5699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0882.1, 2019.
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang,
X. L., Woodruff, S. D., Worley, S. J.: Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth
Century Reanalysis system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 2876–2908,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598, 2019.
Smoliak, B. V., Wallace, J. M., Lin, P., and Fu, Q.: Dynamical adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature field: Methodology and
application to observations, J. Climate, 28, 1613–1629, 2015.
Sonnewald, M., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Marsh, R., McDonagh, E. L., and King, B. A.: Atlantic meridional ocean heat transport at 26
∘ N: impact on subtropical ocean heat content variability, Ocean Sci., 9, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-1057-2013, 2013.
Squintu, A. A., van der Schrier, G., Brugnara, Y., and Klein Tank, A.:
Homogenization of daily temperature series in the European Climate
Assessment [data set], Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1243–1261,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5874, 2019.
Stillman, J. H.: Heat Waves, the New Normal: Summertime Temperature Extremes
Will Impact Animals, Ecosystems, and Human Communities, Physiology, 34,
86–100, https://doi.org/10.1152/physiol.00040.2018, 2019.
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.-P., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., and Zwiers, F. W.: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 23–41, 2016.
Sutton, R. T. and Dong, B.: Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in
European climate in the 1990s, Nat. Geosci., 5, 788–792,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1595, 2012.
terrayl: terrayl/Dynamico: Dynamico version v1.0.0 (v1.0.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5584777, 2021.
van Garderen, L., Feser, F., and Shepherd, T. G.: A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, 2021.
Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Otto, F., Stott, P., Christidis, N., van Oldenborgh,
G. J., and Schaller, N.: Attribution of human-induced dynamical and
thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events, Environ. Res. Lett.
11, 114009, 2016.
Wallace, J. M., Fu Q., Smoliak, B. V., Lin, P., and Johanson, C. M.:
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical
Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season, Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci., 109, 14337–14342, 2012.
Wang, C., Liu, H., and Lee, S.-K.: The record-breaking cold temperatures
during the winter of 2009/2010 in the Northern Hemisphere, Atmos. Sci. Lett.,
11, 161–168, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.278, 2010.
Wehrli, K., Guillod, B. P., Hauser, M., Leclair, M., and Seneviratne, S.
I.: Identifying key driving processes of major recent heat waves, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 11746–11765, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030635, 2019.
Woollings, T., Papritz, L., Mbengue, C., and Spengler, T.: Diabatic heating
and jet stream shifts: A case study of the 2010 negative North Atlantic
Oscillation winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9994–10002,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070146, 2016.
