Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Research article
 | 
27 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2022

Subseasonal precipitation forecasts of opportunity over central southwest Asia

Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell

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Short summary
We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.
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