Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022
Research article
 | 
27 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2022

Subseasonal precipitation forecasts of opportunity over central southwest Asia

Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell

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Cited articles

Agrawala, S., M. Barlow, H. Cullen, and Lyon, B.: The drought and humanitarian crisis in central and southwest Asia: A climate perspective, IRI Special Rep. 01–11, 24 pp., https://doi.org/10.7916/D8NZ8FHQ, 2001. 
Albers, J. R. and Newman, M.: A priori identification of skillful extratropical subseasonal forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12527–12536, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085270, 2019. 
Albers, J. R. and Newman, M.: Subseasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe781, 2021. 
Albers, J. R., Newman, M., Hoell, A., Breeden, M. L., Wang, Y., and Lou, J.: The February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak in the United States: a Subseasonal Forecast of Opportunity, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0266.1, online first, 2022. 
Barlow, M., Cullen, H., and Lyon, B.: Drought in central and southwest Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation, J. Climate, 15, 697–700, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0697:DICASA>2.0.CO;2​​​​​​​, 2002. 
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Short summary
We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.