Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Research article
27 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2022

Subseasonal precipitation forecasts of opportunity over central southwest Asia

Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell

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The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing
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The spring transition of the North Pacific jet and its relation to deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass transport over western North America
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Cited articles

Agrawala, S., M. Barlow, H. Cullen, and Lyon, B.: The drought and humanitarian crisis in central and southwest Asia: A climate perspective, IRI Special Rep. 01–11, 24 pp.,, 2001. 
Albers, J. R. and Newman, M.: A priori identification of skillful extratropical subseasonal forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12527–12536,, 2019. 
Albers, J. R. and Newman, M.: Subseasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044024,, 2021. 
Albers, J. R., Newman, M., Hoell, A., Breeden, M. L., Wang, Y., and Lou, J.: The February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak in the United States: a Subseasonal Forecast of Opportunity, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,, online first, 2022. 
Barlow, M., Cullen, H., and Lyon, B.: Drought in central and southwest Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation, J. Climate, 15, 697–700,<0697:DICASA>2.0.CO;2​​​​​​​, 2002. 
Short summary
We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.