Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
Research article
 | 
23 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2023

Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1950 to 1978 (preliminary version) B. Bell, H. Hersbach, P. Berrisford, P. Dahlgren, A. Horányi, A., J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, and J.-N. Thépaut https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels-preliminary-back-extension?tab=overview

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1950 to 1978 (preliminary version) B. Bell, H. Hersbach, P. Berrisford, P. Dahlgren, A. Horányi, A., J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, and J.-N. Thépaut https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-preliminary-back-extension?tab=overview

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1959 to present, H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Seasonal forecast daily and subdaily data on single levels CDS https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.181d637e

Seasonal forecast subdaily data on pressure levels CDS https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.50ed0a73

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Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
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