Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
Research article
23 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2023

Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-39', Erik Kolstad, 18 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on wcd-2022-39', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Aug 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-39', Philip Bett, 08 Dec 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Philip Bett on behalf of the Authors (08 Dec 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Dec 2022) by Daniela Domeisen
RR by Erik Kolstad (02 Feb 2023)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (03 Feb 2023) by Daniela Domeisen
AR by Steven Hardiman on behalf of the Authors (08 Feb 2023)  Author's response    Manuscript
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.