Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 23 Feb 2023
| 23 Feb 2023
Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Philip E. Bett
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Adam A. Scaife
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Hazel E. Thornton
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Xiaocen Shen
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Bo Pang
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This paper presents a new large ensemble of climate model simulations: The CANARI HadGEM3 Large Ensemble (CANARI LE). The CANARI LE has a comparatively high resolution, provides sub-daily output on atmospheric pressure levels, and boundary conditions for driving regional model simulations. The CANARI LE is thus a community resource that lends itself for the study of physical coupled climate processes, weather systems, and impacts in a changing climate.
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Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g., 100-year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations to get more accurate information on 5–10-year timescales. Reliable information on these timescales is very important, especially for water management experts, to know how much meltwater to expect, affecting rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
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This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 587–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, 2024
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This study investigates how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, the Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), and which might need improvement to refine the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
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We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
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Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the...
