Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
Research article
23 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2023

Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang

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Cited articles

Anstey, J. A. and Shepherd, T. G.: High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1–21,, 2014. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 30937–30946,, 1999. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science (80-), 294, 581–584,, 2001. 
Bancalá, S., Krüger, K., and Giorgetta, M.: The preconditioning of major sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, 4101,, 2012. 
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.