Physical drivers of the November 2023 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro

Ivanovich, Catherine C.; Sobel, Adam H.; Horton, Radley M.; Nunes, Ana M. B.; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio; Camargo, Suzana J.

doi:10.5194/wcd-6-1857-2025

Articles | Volume 6, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1857-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1857-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 4

Research article

|

18 Dec 2025

Research article |

| 18 Dec 2025

Physical drivers of the November 2023 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro

Catherine C. Ivanovich, Adam H. Sobel, Radley M. Horton, Ana M. B. Nunes, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, and Suzana J. Camargo

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1857-2025-supplement

Data sets

HadISD v3 R. J. H. Dunn https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-473-2016

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hershbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present H. Hershbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

NOAA 1/4° Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Dataset (OISST) B. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1

NASA Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEXGDDP) B. Thrasher et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Rio Alert System Station Data - November 2023 Sistema Alerta Rio da Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17882803

Short summary

Here we identify the drivers of Rio de Janeiro’s record-breaking November 2023 heatwave. We find that springtime extreme heat in the city is becoming more frequent and heat events of the magnitude experienced in November 2023 may become significantly more likely with continued climate change. These results characterizing the evolving risk for extreme heat in Rio de Janeiro are essential for the city’s development of targeted hazard management plans.