Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1875-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1875-2025
Research article
 | 
19 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 19 Dec 2025

Summer Greenland Blocking in reanalysis and in SEAS5.1 seasonal forecasts: robust trend or natural variability?

Johanna Beckmann, Giorgia Di Capua, and Paolo Davini

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Seasonal forecast subdaily data on pressure levels Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.50ed0a73

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Short summary
Greenland blocking, which enhances ice sheet melting, has increased, but climate models fail to capture this trend. Analysis with reanalysis data and a seasonal forecast system shows that model improvements help, but they still miss the role of early North American snowmelt in shaping blocking patterns. This gap may explain the discrepancy and suggests that future projections could underestimate Greenland blocking and its impact on melting.
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