Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1875-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1875-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
Research article
 | 
19 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 19 Dec 2025

Summer Greenland Blocking in reanalysis and in SEAS5.1 seasonal forecasts: robust trend or natural variability?

Johanna Beckmann, Giorgia Di Capua, and Paolo Davini

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Short summary
Greenland blocking, which enhances ice sheet melting, has increased, but climate models fail to capture this trend. Analysis with reanalysis data and a seasonal forecast system shows that model improvements help, but they still miss the role of early North American snowmelt in shaping blocking patterns. This gap may explain the discrepancy and suggests that future projections could underestimate Greenland blocking and its impact on melting.
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