Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method

Noyelle, Robin; Faranda, Davide; Robin, Yoann; Vrac, Mathieu; Yiou, Pascal

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025

Articles | Volume 6, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 3

Research article

|

07 Aug 2025

Research article |

| 07 Aug 2025

Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method

Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

Model code and software

Code for "Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogues method" Robin Noyelle https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15442651

Short summary

Properties of extreme meteorological and climatological events are changing under human-caused climate change. Extreme event attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogue method, which compares the observed event to similar events in the past.