Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025
Research article
 | 
07 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 07 Aug 2025

Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method

Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou

Related authors

Storm Boris (2024) in the current and future climate: a dynamics-centered contextualization, and some lessons learnt
Jacopo Riboldi, Robin Noyelle, Ellina Agayar, Hanin Binder, Marc Federer, Katharina Hartmuth, Michael Sprenger, Iris Thurnherr, and Selvakumar Vishnupriya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3599,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3599, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Estimating return periods for extreme events in climate models through Ensemble Boosting
Luna Bloin-Wibe, Robin Noyelle, Vincent Humphrey, Urs Beyerle, Reto Knutti, and Erich Fischer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525, 2025
Short summary
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Alaya, M. B., Zwiers, F., and Zhang, X.: An evaluation of block-maximum-based estimation of very long return period precipitation extremes with a large ensemble climate simulation, J. Climate, 33, 6957–6970, 2020. a
Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Challinor, A. J., and Osborn, T. J.: Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase, Climatic Change, 155, 377–391, 2019. a
Cassola, F., Iengo, A., and Turato, B.: Extreme convective precipitation in Liguria (Italy): a brief description and analysis of the event occurred on October 4, 2021, Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology, 4, 4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-023-00058-3, 2023.​​​​​​​ a
Clarke, B., Otto, F., Stuart-Smith, R., and Harrington, L.: Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective, Environmental Research: Climate, 1, 012001, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d, 2022.​​​​​​​ a
Coles, S.: An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, vol. 208, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0, 2001. a
Download
Short summary
Properties of extreme meteorological and climatological events are changing under human-caused climate change. Extreme event attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogue method, which compares the observed event to similar events in the past.
Share