Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1117-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1117-2026
Research article
 | 
06 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 06 Jul 2026

Distinct bias structures for extratropical cyclones with strong or weak diabatic heating

Qidi Yu, Clemens Spensberger, Linus Magnusson, and Thomas Spengler

Data sets

ERA5 cyclone tracks C. Spensberger and A. Marcheggiani https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00023

Model code and software

ERA5 cyclone tracks C. Spensberger and A. Marcheggiani https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00023

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Short summary
Forecast biases of winter extratropical cyclones are quantified by varying diabatic heating intensity. A southwest shift and underestimated intensity are found in the strong heating group. The weaker heating group mainly shows an intensity bias. Specific biases are identified for wind, moisture, temperature, and upper-level circulation fields. Findings highlight that representing moist processes and their interaction with atmospheric dynamics is a key area for future model developments.
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