Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: a process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe

Roemer, Florian E.; Fischer, Erich M.; Noyelle, Robin; Knutti, Reto

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

Research article

|

30 Sep 2026

Research article |

| 30 Sep 2026

Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: a process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe

Florian E. Roemer, Erich M. Fischer, Robin Noyelle, and Reto Knutti

Data sets

Supplementary data for "Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: A process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe" Florian E. Roemer et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19494785

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

ERA5-Land post-processed daily statistics from 1950 to present Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e9c9c792

Interactive computing environment

Supplementary code for "Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: A process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe" Florian E. Roemer et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19492889

Short summary

Climate model based storylines of future extreme events are a useful tool to inform disaster preparations, but it is often unclear whether such events are plausible to occur in the real world. We present an approach that evaluates the plausibility of climate storylines based on process understanding and historical precedents. We demonstrate our approach for long-lasting heatwaves in Western Europe; it can also be applied other types of extreme events.