Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
30 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 30 Sep 2026

Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: a process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe

Florian E. Roemer, Erich M. Fischer, Robin Noyelle, and Reto Knutti

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Short summary
Climate model based storylines of future extreme events are a useful tool to inform disaster preparations, but it is often unclear whether such events are plausible to occur in the real world. We present an approach that evaluates the plausibility of climate storylines based on process understanding and historical precedents. We demonstrate our approach for long-lasting heatwaves in Western Europe; it can also be applied other types of extreme events.
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