Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-263-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-263-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 02 Feb 2026
| 02 Feb 2026
Mediterranean Sea heat uptake variability as a precursor to winter precipitation in the Levant
Ofer Cohen
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Assaf Hochman
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Ehud Strobach
Holon Institute of Technology, Holon, Israel
Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Agricultural Research Organization, Volcani Institute, Rishon LeTsiyon, Israel
Hezi Gildor
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
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Babita Jangir and Ehud Strobach
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6375, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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This study examines Medicane Daniel, showing how a warm-core eddy, high ocean heat content, and a marine heatwave sustained its intensity near Libya. Using high-resolution Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT data), we reveal fine-scale eddy dynamics and link storm-driven vertical mixing and upwelling to increases in chlorophyll, nutrients, and oxygen, highlighting complex ocean–atmosphere–biogeochemical interactions.
Abdullah A. Fahad, Andrea Molod, Krzysztof Wargan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Patrick Heimbach, Atanas Trayanov, Ehud Strobach, and Lawrence Coy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 647–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-647-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-647-2026, 2026
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This study used reanalysis datasets and a 1-degree coupled General Circulation Model to analyze the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature response in a decadal simulation. Results show that the polar stratospheric temperature increased from 1992 to 2000, contrary to the expectation of stratospheric cooling due to rising CO2. The study concluded that changes in ozone and CO2 drive the meridional eddy heat transport, dictating polar stratospheric temperature behavior.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1515–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, 2025
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Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic storms ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns an analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes, and attribution theory.
Itamar Yacoby, Hezi Gildor, and Nathan Paldor
Ocean Sci., 21, 2805–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2805-2025, 2025
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The paper examines the applicability of known linear wave theories to numerical simulations of two, zonally invariant, fundamental problems of Physical Oceanography: Geostrophic adjustment and Ekman Adjustment. By simulating the problems with a modified version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) we show that neither of the known wave theories can explain the results of the simulations in large and small meridional domains and for long and short times.
Efraim Bril, Adi Torfstein, Roy Yaniv, and Assaf Hochman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3088, 2025
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During a past warm period, we found that the eastern Mediterranean region experienced stronger but shorter rain events, especially in the south. The warming made the air wetter, which helped produce more intense rainfall. Using climate models and recent data, we show how this improves our understanding of future changes in dry regions.
Yosef Ashkenazy, Hezi Gildor, and Aviv Solodoch
Ocean Sci., 21, 1641–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1641-2025, 2025
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We studied ocean currents in the eastern Mediterranean near Israel's coast (2016–2024) across depths of up to 1.3 km. The generalized gamma distribution best matched current-speed data. The speed increment time series fit a stretched exponential distribution better than a normal distribution. Comparisons with high-resolution and regional general circulation models showed discrepancies, highlighting the need to refine the models for better extreme current-speed event predictions.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Nir Haim, Vika Grigorieva, Rotem Soffer, Boaz Mayzel, Timor Katz, Ronen Alkalay, Eli Biton, Ayah Lazar, Hezi Gildor, Ilana Berman-Frank, Yishai Weinstein, Barak Herut, and Yaron Toledo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2659–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2659-2024, 2024
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This paper outlines the process of creating an open-access surface wave dataset, drawing from deep-sea research station observations located 50 km off the coast of Israel. The discussion covers the wave monitoring procedure, from instrument configuration to wave field retrieval, and aspects of quality assurance. The dataset presented spans over 5 years, offering uncommon in situ wave measurements in the deep sea, and addresses the existing gap in wave information within the region.
Shai Abir, Hamish A. McGowan, Yonatan Shaked, Hezi Gildor, Efrat Morin, and Nadav G. Lensky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, 2024
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Understanding air–sea heat exchange is vital for studying ocean dynamics. Eddy covariance measurements over the Gulf of Eilat revealed a 3.22 m yr-1 evaporation rate, which is inconsistent with bulk formulae estimations in stable atmospheric conditions, requiring bulk formulae to be revisited in these environments. The surface fluxes have a net cooling effect on the gulf water on an annual mean (-79 W m-2), balanced by a strong exchange flux between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Eilat.
Itamar Yacoby, Nathan Paldor, and Hezi Gildor
Ocean Sci., 19, 1163–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1163-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1163-2023, 2023
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The transition from an arbitrary initial sea surface height to a geostrophic balance in which the velocity is steady was solved last century for constant Coriolis frequency, f(y), where y is the latitude. This study extends the theory to the realistic case in which f(y) is linear with y. We find that the variation in f(y) translates the steady geostrophic state westward as low-frequency Rossby waves that are harmonic in narrow domains and trapped near the equatorward boundary in wide ones.
Hector S. Torres, Patrice Klein, Jinbo Wang, Alexander Wineteer, Bo Qiu, Andrew F. Thompson, Lionel Renault, Ernesto Rodriguez, Dimitris Menemenlis, Andrea Molod, Christopher N. Hill, Ehud Strobach, Hong Zhang, Mar Flexas, and Dragana Perkovic-Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8041–8058, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022, 2022
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Wind work at the air-sea interface is the scalar product of winds and currents and is the transfer of kinetic energy between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a new global coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation performed at kilometer resolution, we show that all scales of winds and currents impact the ocean dynamics at spatial and temporal scales. The consequential interplay of surface winds and currents in the numerical simulation motivates the need for a winds and currents satellite mission.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Ehud Strobach, Andrea Molod, Donifan Barahona, Atanas Trayanov, Dimitris Menemenlis, and Gael Forget
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2309–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, 2022
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The Green's functions methodology offers a systematic, easy-to-implement, computationally cheap, scalable, and extendable method to tune uncertain parameters in models accounting for the dependent response of the model to a change in various parameters. Herein, we successfully show for the first time that long-term errors in earth system models can be considerably reduced using Green's functions methodology. The method can be easily applied to any model containing uncertain parameters.
Kaushal Gianchandani, Hezi Gildor, and Nathan Paldor
Ocean Sci., 17, 351–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-351-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-351-2021, 2021
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The classical theories of the western boundary currents, proposed in the first half of the 20th century, are extended to include cases of zonally elongated and meridionally narrow ocean basins. Results show for the first time that in basins that are sufficiently narrow meridionally, the equatorward wind-driven transport away from the western boundary is lower than that in meridionally wide basins. Our theoretical results are employed to explain the low transport in the East Australian Current.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
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Short summary
Severe warming and drying in the Eastern Mediterranean makes seasonal prediction of regional rain imperative. The study explores the observed relation of Mediterranean Sea variability to Levant winter precipitation. Ocean heat uptake in the Aegean Sea during summer is found to be a strong predictor of winter Levant precipitation. This connection is mediated by changes in the subtropical jet, which create more favorable conditions for precipitating storms in the Levant during winter.
Severe warming and drying in the Eastern Mediterranean makes seasonal prediction of regional...
