Deficient ocean–atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction

Kolstad, Erik W.

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 1

Research article

|

24 Mar 2026

Research article |

| 24 Mar 2026

Deficient ocean–atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction

Erik W. Kolstad

Data sets

ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Seasonal forecast monthly statistics on single levels Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68dd14c3

Seasonal forecast monthly statistics on pressure levels Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.0b79e7c5

Model code and software

plasmaman/feedbacks-nao: Code for paper Deficient ocean–atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction (Version v1) Erik Kolstad https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19096274

Short summary

Winter weather over the North Atlantic remains difficult. I studied a seasonal forecast system and found that its deficient representation of lagged ocean–atmosphere associations impedes its predictive skill. Specifically, the model's inadequate representation of feedback mechanisms involving surface heat fluxes and storm formation directly limits its skill. This analysis provides entry points for improving the model's performance.