Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Research article
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 24 Mar 2026

Deficient ocean–atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction

Erik W. Kolstad

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Short summary
Winter weather over the North Atlantic remains difficult. I studied a seasonal forecast system and found that its deficient representation of lagged ocean–atmosphere associations impedes its predictive skill. Specifically, the model's inadequate representation of feedback mechanisms involving surface heat fluxes and storm formation directly limits its skill. This analysis provides entry points for improving the model's performance.
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