Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026
Research article
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 24 Mar 2026

Deficient ocean–atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction

Erik W. Kolstad

Cited articles

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Athanasiadis, P. J., Ogawa, F., Omrani, N.-E., Keenlyside, N., Schiemann, R., Baker, A. J., Vidale, P. L., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Haarsma, R., Roberts, M., Roberts, C., Novak, L., and Gualdi, S.: Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet, J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0515.1, 2022. a, b
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., Forest, C. E., and Allen, M. R.: The Linear Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eddy-Driven Jet to SSTs, J. Climate, 32, 6491–6511, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0038.1, 2019. a
Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Johnson, S. J., and Weisheimer, A.: Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi-Model Ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL108472, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472, 2024. a, b, c, d
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Short summary
Winter weather over the North Atlantic remains difficult. I studied a seasonal forecast system and found that its deficient representation of lagged ocean–atmosphere associations impedes its predictive skill. Specifically, the model's inadequate representation of feedback mechanisms involving surface heat fluxes and storm formation directly limits its skill. This analysis provides entry points for improving the model's performance.
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