Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes

Pfleiderer, Peter; Merrifield, Anna; Dunkl, István; Durand, Homer; Cariou, Enora; Cattiaux, Julien; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Sippel, Sebastian

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-89-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-89-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-89-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 1

Research article

|

15 Jan 2026

Research article |

| 15 Jan 2026

Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes

Peter Pfleiderer, Anna Merrifield, István Dunkl, Homer Durand, Enora Cariou, Julien Cattiaux, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Sebastian Sippel

Data sets

Data used in "Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes" (10.5194/egusphere-2025-2397) Urs Beyerle and Sebastian Sippel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18172330

CESM2 Large Ensemble Gokhan Danabasoglu et al. https://doi.org/10.26024/kgmp-c556

IPCC DDC: NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl Gokhan Danabasoglu et al. https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/AR6.C6CMNRCES2pc

Model code and software

Peterpeterp/circ_contribution_to_JJA_trends: V1.1 Peter Pfleiderer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17857756

Short summary

Due to changes in atmospheric circulation some regions are warming quicker than others. Statistical methods are used to estimate how much of the local summer temperature changes are due to circulation changes. We evaluate these methods by comparing their estimates to special simulations representing only temperature changes related to circulation changes. By applying the methods to observations of 1979–2023 we find that half of the warming over parts of Europe is related to circulation changes.