Increasing frequency in off-season tropical cyclones and its relation to climate variability and change

Hernández Ayala, José J.; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

doi:10.5194/wcd-1-745-2020

Articles | Volume 1, issue 2

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Articles | Volume 1, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-745-2020

Articles | Volume 1, issue 2

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Research article

03 Dec 2020

Research article |

| 03 Dec 2020

Increasing frequency in off-season tropical cyclones and its relation to climate variability and change

José J. Hernández Ayala and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda

José J. Hernández Ayala

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

jose.hernandezayala@sonoma.edu

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4397-8482

Climate Research Center, Department of Geography, Environment, & Planning, Sonoma State University, California, USA

Rafael Méndez-Tejeda

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3822-2720

Research Laboratory in Atmospheric Science, University of Puerto Rico at Carolina, Puerto Rico. P. O. Box 4800, 00984, Carolina, Puerto Rico

Cited articles

Aleksandrova, M., Gulev, S. K., and Belyaev, K.: Probability distribution for the visually observed fractional cloud cover over the ocean, J. Climate, 31, 3207–3232, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0317.1, 2018.

Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K., and Mann, M. E.: Authors were clear about hockey-stick uncertainties, Nature, 442, 627, https://doi.org/10.1038/442627b, 2006.

Briggs, W. M.: On the changes in the number and intensity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, J. Climate, 21, 1387–1402, 2008.

Bruce, P. and Bruce, A.: Practical Statistics for Data Scientists, O'Reilly Media, MA, USA, 2017.

Camargo, S. J. and Sobel, A. H.: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO, J. Climate, 18, 2996–3006, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3457.1, 2005.

Christensen, J. H., Kanikicharla, K. K., Aldrian, E., An, S. I., Albuquerque Cavalcanti, I. F., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J. K., Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Lau, N. C., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D. B., Xie, S. P., Zhou, T., Abraham, L., Ambrizzi, T., Anderson, B., Arakawa, O., Arritt, R., Baldwin, M., Barlow, M., Barriopedro, D., Biasutti, M., Biner, S., Bromwich, D., Brown, J., Cai, W., Carvalho, L. V., Chang, P., Chen, X., Choi, J., Christensen, O. B., Deser, C., Emanuel, K., Endo, H., Enfield, D. B., Evan, A., Giannini, A., Gillett, N., Hariharasubramanian, A., Huang, P., Jones, J., Karumuri, A., Katzfey, J., Kjellström, E., Knight, J., Knutson, T., Kulkarni, A., Kundeti, K. R., Lau, W. K., Lenderink, G., Lennard, C., Leung, L. Y., Lin, R., Losada, T., Mackellar, N. C., Magaña, V., Marshall, G., Mearns, L., Meehl, G., Menéndez, C., Murakami, H., Nath, M. J., Neelin, J. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Olesen, M., Polcher, J., Qian, Y., Ray, S., Reich, K. D., Rodriguez de Fonseca, B., Ruti, P., Screen, J., Sedláček, J., Solman, S., Stendel, M., Stevenson, S., Takayabu, I., Turner, J., Ummenhofer, C., Walsh, K., Wang, B., Wang, C., Watterson, I., Widlansky, M., Wittenberg, A., Woollings, T., Yeh, S. W., Zhang, C., Zhang, L., Zheng, X., and Zou, L.: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Vol. 9781107057999, 1217-1308, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028, 2013.

Eastman, R., Warren, S. G., and Hahn, C. J.: Variations in cloud cover and cloud types over the ocean from surface observations, 1954–2008, J. Climate, 24, 5914–5934, 2011.

Emanuel, K. A.: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686–688, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906, 2005.

Emanuel, K. A.: Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 12219–12224, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1301293110, 2013.

Freeman, E., Woodruff, S. D., Worley, S. J., Lubker, S. J., Kent, E. C., Angel, W. E., Berry, D. I., Brohan, P., Eastman, R., Gates, L., Gloeden, W., Ji, Z., Lawrimore, J., Rayner, N. A., Rosenhagen, G., and Smith, S. R.: ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 2211–2232, 2017.

Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., and Gray, W. M.: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications, Science, 293, 474–478, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1060040, 2001.

Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010 (data available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-surface-temperature-data-gistemp-nasa-goddard-institute-space-studies-giss, last access: 15 November 2020).

Henley, B. J., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Power, S. B., Kennedy, J., and Folland, C. K.: A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3077–3090, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1, 2015 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/IPOTPI/, last access: 15 November 2020).

Hipel, K. W. and McLeod, A. I.: Time Series Modelling of Water Resources and Environmental Systems, available at: http://www.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/1994Book/ (last access: 15 January 2020), 2005.

Holland, G. J. and Webster, P. J.: Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: Natural variability or climate trend?, Philos. T. Roy. Soc., 365, 2695–2716, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2083, 2007.

Gareth, J., Witten, D., Hastie, T., and Tibshirani, R.: An Introduction to Statistical Learning: With Applications in R. Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated, NY, USA, 2014.

Knapp, K. R., Diamond, H. J., Kossin, J. P., Kruk, M. C., and Schreck, C. J.: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project, Version 4. [indicate subset used], NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, non-gonvernment domain, https://doi.org/10.25921/82ty-9e16, 2018.

Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J., and Neumann, C. J.: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), Unifying tropical cyclone best track data, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/, last access: November 2020.

Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., and Sugi, M.: Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nat. Geosci., 3, 157–163, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779, 2010.

Klotzbach, P. J.: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005), Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025881, 2006.

Landsea, C. W.: Meteorology: Hurricanes and global warming, Nature, 438, E11–E12, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04477, 2005.

Landsea, C. W.: Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Un., 88, 197–202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO180001, 2007.

Landsea, C. W., Harper, B. A., Hoarau, K., and Knaff, J. A.: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones?, Science, 313, 452–454, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128448, 2006.

Mahala, B. K., Nayak, B. K., and Mohanty, P. K.: Impacts of ENSO and IOD on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal, Nat. Hazards, 75, 1105–1125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1360-8, 2015.

Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.

Mann, M. E., Sabbatelli, T. A., and Neu, U.: Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007.

Mann, M. E., Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J., and Zhihua, Z.: Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years, Nature, 460, 880–883, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08219, 2009.

McLeod, A. I.: Kendall rank correlation and Mann-Kendall trend test, R Package Kendall, available at: http://btr0x2.rz.uni-bayreuth.de/math/statlib/R/CRAN/doc/packages/Kendall.pdf (last access: 18 November 2020), 2005.

Moon, I. J., Kim, S. H., and Chan, J. C.: Climate change and tropical cyclone trend, Nature, 570, E3–E5, 2019.

Nogueira, R. C., Keim, B. D., Brown, D. P., and Robbins, K. D.: Variability of rainfall from tropical cyclones in the eastern USA and its association to the AMO and ENSO, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 273–283, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0722-y, 2013.

Rayner, N. A. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003 (data available at: https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi, last access: 15 November 2020).

Saunders, M. and Lea, A.: Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, Nature, 451, 557–560, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06422, 2008.

Tang, B. H. and Neelin, J. D.: ENSO influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021072, 2004.

Trenberth, K. E.: Warmer oceans, stronger hurricanes, Sci. Am., 297, 44–51, 2007.

Trenberth, K. E. and Stepaniak, D. P.: Indices of El Niño Evolution, J. Climate, 14, 1697–1701, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1697:LIOENO>2.0.CO;2, 2001 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.data, last access: 15 November 2020).

Trenberth, K. E. and Shea, D. J.: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894, 2006.

Trenberth, K. E., Zhang, R., and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate Data Guide: Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation-amo, last access: 10 January 2019.

Venables, W. N. and Ripley, B. D.: Modern Applied Statistics with S. Fourth edition, Springer, NY, USA, 2002.

Walsh, K. J., Camargo, S. J., Knutson, T. R., Kossin, J., Lee, T. C., Murakami, H., and Particular, C.: Tropical cyclones and climate change, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 240–250, 2019.

Wang, C. and Lee, S. K.: Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032396, 2008.

Zhao, J., Zhan, R., Wang, Y., and Xu, H.: Contribution of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific since 1998, J. Climate, 31, 8211–8224, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0202.1, 2018.