Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Research article
 | 
01 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 01 Jul 2022

The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature

James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein

Data sets

ERA-Interim Project (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts https://doi.org/10.5065/D6CR5RD9

ERA5 Reanalysis (0.25 Degree Latitude-Longitude Grid) (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts https://doi.org/10.5065/BH6N-5N20

ERA5.1: Corrections to ERA5 Stratospheric Temperature 2000-2006 (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts https://doi.org/10.5065/CBTN-V814

The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) unifying tropical cyclone data (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/) Kenneth R. Knapp, Michael C. Kruk, David H. Levinson, Howard J. Diamond, and Charles J. Neumann https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1

Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades James P. Kossin, Kenneth R. Knapp, Timothy L. Olander, and Christopher S. Velden https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117

Homogenization of radiosonde temperature time series using innovation statistics (https://www.univie.ac.at/theoret-met/research/raobcore/) Leopold Haimberger https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4050.1

pyPI (v1.3): Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Calculations in Python Daniel M. Gilford https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2351-2021

Hurricane climatology: a modern statistical guide using R James B. Elsner and Thomas H. Jagger https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199827633.001.0001

Model code and software

dgilford/pyPI: pyPI v1.3 (initial package release) Daniel Gilford https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3985975

A benchmark simulation for moist nonhydrostatic numerical models (https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/people/bryan/cm1/) George H. Bryan and J. Michael Fritsch https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2917:ABSFMN>2.0.CO;2

Download
Short summary
We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Read more