Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Research article
01 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 01 Jul 2022

The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature

James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein

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Cited articles

Alland, J. J., Tang, B H., Corbosiero, K. L., and Bryan, G. H.: Synergistic effects of midlevel dry air and vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone development. Part I: Downdraft ventilation, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 763–782,, 2021a 
Alland, J. J., Tang, B. H., Corbosiero, K. L., and Bryan, G. H.: Combined effects of midlevel dry air and vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone development. Part II: Radial ventilation, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 783–796,, 2021b. 
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232,, 2002. 
Alvey III, G. R., Zipser, E., and Zawislak, J.: How does Hurricane Edouard (2014) evolve toward symmetry before rapid intensification? A high-resolution ensemble study, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 1329–1351,, 2020. 
Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., and McShane, B.: Scientists rise up against statistical significance, Nature, 567, 305–307,, 2019. 
Short summary
We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.