Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-229-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-229-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 22 Mar 2023
| 22 Mar 2023
Effects on early monsoon rainfall in West Africa due to recent deforestation in a convection-permitting ensemble
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Cornelia Klein
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Sonja Folwell
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Christopher M. Taylor
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, Wallingford, UK
Douglas J. Parker
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Norway
Adama Bamba
Laboratory of Material Sciences, Environment and Solar Energy (LASMES), Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny (UFHB), Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
Kouakou Kouadio
Laboratory of Material Sciences, Environment and Solar Energy (LASMES), Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny (UFHB), Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
Geophysical Station of Lamto, BP 31, N'Douci, Côte d'Ivoire
Related authors
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
Lorenz Hänchen, Emily Potter, Cornelia Klein, Pierluigi Calanca, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2727–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In semi-arid regions, the timing and duration of the rainy season are crucial for agriculture. This study introduces a new framework for improving estimations of the onset and end of the rainy season by testing how well they fit local vegetation data. We improve the performance of existing methods and present a new one with higher performance. Our findings can help us to make informed decisions about water usage, and the framework can be applied to other regions as well.
Bethan L. Harris, Christopher M. Taylor, Wouter Dorigo, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Darren Ghent, and Iván Noguera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1489, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An improved understanding of land-atmosphere coupling processes during flash (rapid-onset) droughts is needed to aid the development of forecasts for these events. We use satellite observations to investigate the surface energy budget during flash droughts globally. The most intense events show a perturbed surface energy budget months before onset. In some regions, vegetation observations 1–2 months before onset provide information on the likelihood of heat extremes during an event.
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
AI is impacting science, providing key data insights, but most algorithms are statistical requiring cautious "out-of-sample" extrapolation. Yet climate research concerns predicting future climatic states. We consider a new method of AI-led equation discovery. Equations offer process interpretation and more robust predictions. We recommend this method for climate analysis, suggesting illustrative application to atmospheric convection, land–atmosphere CO2 flux, and global ocean circulation models.
Bethan L. Harris, Tristan Quaife, Christopher M. Taylor, and Phil P. Harris
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1019–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The response of vegetation productivity to rainfall is a crucial process linking the water and carbon cycles and influencing the evolution of the climate system. However, there are many uncertainties in its representation in Earth system models. We show that the vegetation productivity responses to short-term rainfall events are very different between models due to their differing sensitivities to water availability. We also evaluate the models against a range of observational products.
Francis Nkrumah, Cornelia Klein, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Rebecca Berkoh-Oforiwaa, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Patrick Essien, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, and Hubert Azoda Koffi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 773–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not yet clear which variations in broader atmospheric conditions of the West African monsoon may lead to mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurrences in southern West Africa (SWA). In this study, we identified nine different weather patterns and categorized them as dry-, transition-, or monsoon-season types using a method called self-organizing maps (SOMs). It was revealed that a warmer Sahel region can create favourable conditions for MCS formation in SWA.
Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, Doug B. Clark, Chris Huntingford, Christopher M. Taylor, Pier Luigi Vidale, Patrick C. McGuire, Markus Todt, Sonja Folwell, Valiyaveetil Shamsudheen Semeena, and Belinda E. Medlyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5567–5592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce new representations of plant physiological processes into a land surface model. Including new biological understanding improves modelled carbon and water fluxes for the present in tropical and northern-latitude forests. Future climate simulations demonstrate the sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is important for modelling carbon cycle dynamics in a warming world. Accurate representation of these processes in models is necessary for robust predictions of climate change.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 711–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to 3–4 months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel, with a peak change of −1.5 and 0.5 °C in the wet and dry experiments, respectively. The strongest impact on precipitation in the wet and dry experiments is found over the West and Central Sahel, with a peak change of about 40 % and −8 %, respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel, and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) the number of precipitation extreme events but not their intensity.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
Cited articles
Abiodun, B., Pal, J. S., Afiesimama, E., Gutowski, W., and Adedoyin, A.:
Simulation of West African monsoon using RegCM3 Part II: impacts of deforestation and desertification, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, 245–261, 2008.
Aleman J. C., Jarzyna M. A., and Staver A. C.:
Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1900, Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2, 26–33, 2018.
Alkama, R. and Cescatti, A.:
Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover, Science, 351 6273, 600–604, 2016.
Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.:
The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.
Birch, C. E., Marsham, J. H., Parker, D. J., and Taylor, C. M.:
The scale dependence and structure of convergence fields preceding the initiation of deep convection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4769–4776, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060493, 2014.
Boone, A. A., Xue, Y., De Sales, F., Comer, R. E., Hagos, S., Mahanama, S., Schiro, K., Song, G., Wang, G., Li, S., and Mechoso, C. R.: The regional impact of Land-Use Land-cover Change (LULCC) over West Africa from an ensemble of global climate models under the auspices of the WAMME2 project, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3547–3573, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3252-y, 2016.
Boysen, L. R., Brovkin, V., Pongratz, J., Lawrence, D. M., Lawrence, P., Vuichard, N., Peylin, P., Liddicoat, S., Hajima, T., Zhang, Y., Rocher, M., Delire, C., Séférian, R., Arora, V. K., Nieradzik, L., Anthoni, P., Thiery, W., Laguë, M. M., Lawrence, D., and Lo, M.-H.:
Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020.
Brandt M., Rasmussen, K., Peñuelas, J., Tian, F., Schurgers, G., Verger, A., Mertz, O., Palmer, J. R. B., and Fensholt, R.: Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature Ecology and Evolution, 1, 0081, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0081, 2017.
Chagnon, F. J. F. and Bras, R. L.: Contemporary climate change in the Amazon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L13703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022722, 2005.
Chilukoti, N and Xue, Y.:
An assessment of potential climate impact during 1948–2010 using historical land use land cover change maps, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 295–315, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6621, 2020.
Crook, J.: VERA: West Africa current vegetation and 1950 vegetation scenario ensemble mean data for June 2014, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis [data set], https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/db259fd2bad64b6da9af884121a160a6 (last access: 14 March 2023), 2021.
Crook, J., Klein, C., Folwell, S., Taylor, C. M., Parker, D. J., Stratton, R., and Stein, T.:
Assessment of the representation of West African storm lifecycles in convection-permitting simulations, Earth Space Sci., 6, 818–835, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000491, 2019.
D'Almeida, C., Vörösmarty, C. J., Hurtt, G. C., Marengo, J. A., Dingman, S. L., and Keim, B. D.:
The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: a review on scale and resolution, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 633–647, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1475, 2007.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Devaraju, N., Bala, G., and Modak, A.: Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3257–3262, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423439112, 2015.
Duveiller, G., Hooker, J., and Cescatti, A.:
The mark of vegetation change on Earth's surface energy balance, Nat. Commun., 9, 679, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02810-8, 2018.
Duveiller, G., Caporaso, L., Abad-Viñas, R., Perugini, L., Grassi, G., Arneth, A., and Cescatti, A.:
Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers, Land Use Policy, 91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104382, 2020.
Finney, D. L., Marsham, J. H., Rowell, D. P., Kendon, E. J., Tucker, S. O., Stratton, R. A., and Jackson, L. S.:
Effects of Explicit Convection on Future Projections of Mesoscale Circulations, Rainfall, and Rainfall Extremes over Eastern Africa, J. Climate, 33, 2701–2718, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0328.1, 2020.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations-a new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Scientific Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/Sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Garcia-Carreras, L., Parker, D. J., and Marsham, J.:
What is the mechanism for the modification of convective cloud distributions by land surface-induced flows?, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 619–634, 2011.
Gregory, D. and Rowntree, P. R.: A mass-flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability dependent closure, Mon. Weather Rev., 118, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1483:AMFCSW>2.0.CO;2, 1990.
Hartley, A. J., Parker, D. J., Garcia-Carreras, L., Webster, S.:
Simulation of vegetation feedbacks on local and regional scale precipitation in West Africa, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 222, 59–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.03.001, 2016.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., and Wang, Y. P.:
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Climatic Change, 109, 117–161, 2011.
Khanna, J., Medivgy, D., Fueglistaler, S., and Walko, R.:
Regional dry-season climate changes due to three decades of Amazonian deforestation, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 200–204, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3226, 2017.
Lawrence, D. and Vandecar, K.: Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 27–36, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2430, 2014.
Maranan, M. Fink, A. H., and Knippertz, P.: Rainfall Types over Southern West Africa: Objective Identification, Climatology and Synoptic Environment, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1628–1648, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3345, 2018.
Medvigy, D., Walko, R. L., and Avissar, R.:
Effects of Deforestation on Spatiotemporal Distributions of Precipitation in South America, J. Climate, 24, 2147–2163, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3882.1, 2011.
Parker, D. J., Kassimou, A., Orji, B. N., Osika, D. P., Hamza, I., Diop-Kane, M., Fink, A., Galvin, J., Guichard, F., Lamptey, B. L., Hamidou, H., van der Linden, R., Redl, R., and Lebel, T.:
Local Weather, in: Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters' Handbook, edited by: Parker, D. J. and Diop-Kane, M., John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK, 130–174, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118391297.ch4, 2017.
Peng, S., Piaoa, S., Zenga, Z., Ciaisc, P., Zhoud, L., Lie, L., Mynenif, R., Yina, Y., and Zengg, H.: Afforestation in China cools local land surface temperature, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 2915–2919, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1315126111, 2014.
Perugini, L., Caporaso, L, Marconi, S., Cescatti, A., Quesada, B., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N,. House, J., and Arneth, A.:
Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 053002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b3f, 2017.
Pitman, A. J., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Cruz, F. T., Davin, E. L., Bonan, G. B., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Delire, C., Ganzeveld, L., Gayler, V.,
van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Lawrence, P. J., van der Molen, M. K., Müller, C., Reick, C. H., Seneviratne, S. I., Strengers, B. J., and Voldoire, A.: Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039076, 2009.
Poulter, B., MacBean, N., Hartley, A., Khlystova, I., Arino, O., Betts, R., Bontemps, S., Boettcher, M., Brockmann, C., Defourny, P., Hagemann, S., Herold, M., Kirches, G., Lamarche, C., Lederer, D., Ottlé, C., Peters, M., and Peylin, P.:
Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015.
Prein, A. F., Foss, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.: A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015.
Semazzi, F. H. M. and Song, Y.: A GCM study of climate change induced by deforestation in Africa, Clim. Res., 17, 169–182, 2001.
Semeena, V. S., Taylor, C. M., Folwell, S. S., and Hartley, A.:
Global gridded monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) for five Plant Functional Types (PFTs) derived from the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) products for the period 2000-2014, NERC Environmental Information Data Centre, https://doi.org/10.5285/6d07d60a-4cb9-44e4-be39-89ea40365236, 2021.
Silvério, D., Brando, P., Macedo, M., Beck, P., Bustamante, M., and Coe, M.: Agricultural expansion dominates climate changes in southeastern Amazonia: the overlooked non-GHG forcing, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 104015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104015, 2015.
Souza, E. P., Renno, N. O., and Silva Dias, M. A. F.:
Convective circulations induced by surface heterogeneities, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2915–2922, 2000.
Spracklen, D. V., Baker, J. C. A., Garcia-Carreras, L., and Marsham, J. H.:
The Effects of Tropical Vegetation On Rainfall, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 43, 193–218, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030136, 2018.
Taylor, C. M., Parker, D. J., Lloyd, C. R., and Thorncroft, C. D.:
Observations of synoptic-scale land surface variability and its coupling with the atmosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 913–937, 2005.
Taylor, C. M., Birch, C. E., Parker, D. J., Dixon, N., Guichard, F., Nikulin, G., and Lister, G. M. S.:
Modeling soil moisture-precipitation feedback in the Sahel: Importance of spatial scale versus convective parameterization, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6213–6218, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058511, 2013.
Taylor, C. M., Klein, C., Parker, D. J., Gerard, F., Semeena, V. S., Barton, E. J., and Harris, B. L.: “Late-stage” deforestation enhances storm trends in coastal West Africa, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2109285119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109285119, 2022.
UNEP-WCMC and IUCN: Protected Planet: The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA)/OECM Database [On-line], https://www.protectedplanet.net (last access: October 2014), UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge, UK, 2014.
Vanden Broucke, S. and Van Lipzig, N.: Do convection-permitting models improve the representation of the impact of LUC?, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2749–2763, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3489-5, 2017.
Van den Hoof, C., Vidale, P. L., Verhoef, A., and Vincke, C.: Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: Impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 181, 108-124, 2013.
Wang, G., Eltahir, E. A. B., Foley, J. A., Pollard, D., and Levis, S.: Decadal variability of rainfall in the Sahel: results from the coupled GENESIS-IBIS atmosphere-biosphere model, Clim. Dynam., 22, 625–637, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0411-3, 2004.
Werth, D. and Avissar, R.: The local and global effects of African deforestation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022969, 2005.
Wilks, D. S.:
“The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Grid Points” How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Overinterpreted and What to Do about It, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2263–2273, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1, 2016.
Xiao, Z. Q., Liang, S. L., Wang, J. D., Xiang, Y., Zhao, X., and Song, J. L.:
Long-Time-Series Global Land Surface Satellite Leaf Area Index Product Derived From MODIS and AVHRR Surface Reflectance, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 54, 5301–5318, 2016.
Xu, R., Li, Y., Teuling, A. J., Zhao, L., Spracklen, D. V., Garcia-Carreras, L., Meier, R., Chen, L., Zheng, Y., Lin, H., and Fu, B.: Contrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations, Nat. Commun., 13, 670, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28161-7, 2022.
Short summary
We estimate recent deforestation in West Africa and use a climate model allowing explicit convection to determine impacts on early season rainfall. We find enhanced rainfall over deforestation, in line with recent observational results, due to changes in circulation rather than humidity, showing potential for future studies. Local changes depend on initial soil moisture, deforestation extent, and ocean proximity, with sea breezes shifting inland where surface friction decreased.
We estimate recent deforestation in West Africa and use a climate model allowing explicit...
