Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024
Research article
 | 
08 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 08 Feb 2024

Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis

Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Cited articles

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Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The role of warm conveyor belts for the intensification of extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997–4020, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Binder, H., Joos, H., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
Browning, K.: The dry intrusion perspective of extra-tropical cyclone development, Meteorol. Appl., 4, 317–324, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482797000613, 1997. a, b, c
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Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
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