A regime-based diagnosis of transition probabilities and changes in frequency and intensity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall

Raut, Bhupendra A.; Deshpande, Aditi; Kamble, Devyani; Ingle, Sandip; Naik, Parmeshwar; Walde, Shwetal; Kumar, P. Pradeep; Sen, Purnendranath

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-1173-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1173-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1173-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

Research article

|

07 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 07 Jul 2026

A regime-based diagnosis of transition probabilities and changes in frequency and intensity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall

Bhupendra A. Raut, Aditi Deshpande, Devyani Kamble, Sandip Ingle, Parmeshwar Naik, Shwetal Walde, P. Pradeep Kumar, and Purnendranath Sen

Model code and software

RBhupi/monsoon_clusters: WCD EGUSPHERE-2025-4585 Discussion (0.6) Bhupendra Raut https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20099064

Short summary

We present an unsupervised clustering methodology and post-clustering analysis framework that identifies recurring monsoon rainfall patterns and quantifies their transitions. Analysis reveals breaks are prolonged while monsoon depression are transient. The decomposition of frequency and intensity changes quantifies their contributions in long-term rainfall changes.