Bamzai, A. S. and Shukla, J.: Relation between Eurasian snow cover, snow depth, and the Indian summer monsoon: An observational study, J. Climate, 12, 3117–3132, 1999. a
Bholowalia, P. and Kumar, A.: EBK-means: A clustering technique based on elbow method and
k-means in WSN, Int. J. Comput. Appl., 105,
https://www.ijcaonline.org/archives/volume105/number9/18405-9674/ (last access: 30 June 2026), 2014. a
Catto, J. L., Jakob, C., and Nicholls, N.: The influence of changes in synoptic regimes on north Australian wet season rainfall trends, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017472, 2012.
a
Chakra, S., Ganguly, A., Oza, H., Padhya, V., Pandey, A., and Deshpande, R.: Multidecadal summer monsoon rainfall t
rend reversals in South Peninsular India: A new approach to examining long-term rainfall dataset, J. Hydrol., 624, 129975,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129975, 2023.
a
Choudhury, A. D., Krishnan, R., Ramarao, M., Vellore, R., Singh, M., and Mapes, B.: A phenomenological paradigm for midtropospheric cyclogenesis in the Indian summer monsoon, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 2931–2954, 2018. a
Cleveland, W. S.: Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 74, 829–836, 1979. a
Deshpande, A., Chowdary, J., and Gnanaseelan, C.: Role of thermocline–SST coupling in the evolution of IOD events and their regional impacts, Clim. Dynam., 43, 163–174, 2014.
a,
b
Dey, A., Chattopadhyay, R., Joseph, S., Kaur, M., Mandal, R., Phani, R., Sahai, A., and Pattanaik, D.: The intraseasonal fluctuation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), Theor. Appl. Climatol., 148, 819–831, 2022. a
Dhara, C., Deshpande, A., Roxy, M. K., Dalpadado, P., and Shrestha, M. S.: A post-AR6 update on observed and projected climate change in India, PLOS Climate, 4, e0000724,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000724, 2025.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e
Falga, R. and Wang, C.: The rise of Indian summer monsoon precipitation extremes and its correlation with long-term changes of climate and anthropogenic factors, Sci. Rep., 12, 11985,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16240-0, 2022.
a
Gadgil, S.: Orographic effects on the southwest monsoon: A review, Pure Appl. Geophys., 115, 1413–1430, 1977. a
Gadgil, S.: The Indian monsoon and its variability, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 31, 429–467, 2003. a
Gadgil, S. and Gadgil, S.: The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture, Econ. Polit. Weekly, 4887–4895,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/4418949 (last access: 30 June 2026), 2006. a
Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S.-C., and Ganguly, A. R.: Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 86–91, 2012. a
Goswami, B. N., Keshavamurty, R., and Satyan, V.: Role of barotropic, baroclinic and combined barotropic-baroclinic instability for the growth of monsoon depressions and mid-tropospheric cyclones, P. Indian A. S.-Earth, 89, 79–97, 1980. a
Goswami, B. N., Ajayamohan, R., Xavier, P. K., and Sengupta, D.: Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016734, 2003.
a
Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M., and Xavier, P. K.: Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314, 1442–1445, 2006.
a,
b
Ihara, C., Kushnir, Y., Cane, M. A., and De La Peña, V. H.: Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its link with ENSO and Indian Ocean climate indices, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 179–187, 2007. a
Jackson, R. C., Raut, B. A., Dematties, D., Collis, S. M., Ferrier, N., Beckman, P., Sankaran, R., Kim, Y., Park, S., Shahkarami, S., and Newsom, R.: ARMing the Edge: Designing Edge Computing-capable Machine Learning Algorithms to Target ARM Doppler Lidar Processing, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 2, 1–38,
https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-22-0062.1, 2023.
a
Jain, S. K., Kumar, V., and Saharia, M.: Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 968–978, 2013.
a,
b,
c
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–472,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
a
Kulkarni, A., Sabin, T. P., Chowdary, J. S., Rao, K. K., Priya, P., Gandhi, N., Bhaskar, P., Buri, V. K., Sabade, S. S., Pai, D. S., Ashok, K., Mitra, A. K., Niyogi, D., and Rajeevan, M.: Precipitation Changes in India, Springer Singapore, Singapore, 47–72,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_3, 2020.
a,
b,
c
Mallya, G., Mishra, V., Niyogi, D., Tripathi, S., and Govindaraju, R. S.: Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region, Weather and Climate Extremes, 12, 43–68, 2016. a
Murakami, M.: Analysis of summer monsoon fluctuations over India, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 54, 15–31, 1976. a
Pai, D., Rajeevan, M., Sreejith, O., Mukhopadhyay, B., and Satbha, N.: Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25
× 0.25) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region, Mausam, 65, 1–18, 2014. a
Phadtare, J. A., Fletcher, J. K., Ross, A. N., Turner, A. G., and Schiemann, R. K.: Froude-number-based rainfall regimes over the Western Ghats mountains of India, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 148, 3388–3405, 2022. a
Raghavan, K.: Break-monsoon over India, Mon. Weather Rev., 101, 33–43, 1973.
a,
b,
c,
d
Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., Kale, J., and Lal, B.: High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells, Current Science, 91, 296–306,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/24094135 (last access: 30 June 2026), 2006. a
Ramage, C. S.: The summer atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Sea, J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 144–150, 1966. a
Rao, Y.: Some characteristics of the Southwest Monsoon circulation, Mausam, 12, 413–418, 1961. a
Rao, Y.: Southwest Monsoon, India Meteorological Department, Meteorological Monograph No. 1/1976,
https://imetsociety.org/wp-content/pdf/docs/swmonsoon_yprao.pdf (last access: 27 June 2026), 1976.
a,
b,
c
Raut, B. A., Jakob, C., and Reeder, M. J.: Rainfall changes over southwestern Australia and their relationship to the Southern Annular Mode and ENSO, J. Climate, 27, 5801–5814, 2014.
a,
b,
c
Raut, B. A., Konwar, M., Murugavel, P., Kadge, D., Gurnule, D., Sayyed, I., Todekar, K., Malap, N., Bankar, S., and Prabhakaran, T.: Microphysical origin of raindrop size distributions during the Indian monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093581,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093581, 2021.
a
Roxy, M. and Chaithra, S.: Impacts of climate change on the Indian summer monsoon, in: Climate Change and Water Resources in India, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC), Government of India, ISBN 978-81-933131-6-9, 21–37, 2018.
a,
b,
c
Roxy, M. K., Ritika, K., Terray, P., Murtugudde, R., Ashok, K., and Goswami, B.: Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient, Nat. Commun., 6, 7423,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423, 2015.
a
Saji, N., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P., and Yamagata, T.: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363, 1999. a
Sarker, R.: A dynamical model of orographic rainfall, Mon. Weather Rev., 94, 555–572, 1966. a
Sikka, D. and Gadgil, S.: On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during the southwest monsoon, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1840–1853, 1980.
a,
b
Simpson, G. C.: The south-west monsoon, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 47, 151–171, 1921. a
Straus, D. M.: Preferred intra-seasonal circulation patterns of the Indian summer monsoon and active-break cycles: A new view of the active-break cycle, Clim. Dynam., 59, 1415–1434, 2022. a
Suhas, E., Neena, J., and Goswami, B.: An Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) index for real time monitoring and forecast verification, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2605–2616, 2013.
a,
b
Thompson, D. W. and Wallace, J. M.: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297–1300, 1998. a
Trenberth, K. E.: Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim. Res., 47, 123–138, 2011. a
Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H.: Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 587–595, 2012.
a,
b,
c
Webster, P. J., Magana, V. O., Palmer, T., Shukla, J., Tomas, R., Yanai, M., and Yasunari, T.: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103, 14451–14510, 1998.
a,
b
Yadav, R. K., Srinivas, G., and Chowdary, J. S.: Atlantic Niño modulation of the Indian summer monsoon through Asian jet, Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 23,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0029-5, 2018.
a
Yatagai, A., Kamiguchi, K., Arakawa, O., Hamada, A., Yasutomi, N., and Kitoh, A.: APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1401–1415, 2012. a
Zahan, Y., Mahanta, R., Rajesh, P., and Goswami, B.: Impact of climate change on North-East India (NEI) summer monsoon rainfall, Climatic Change, 164, 2,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02994-5, 2021.
a,
b
