Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1173-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A regime-based diagnosis of transition probabilities and changes in frequency and intensity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall
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- Final revised paper (published on 07 Jul 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 06 Nov 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4585', Nima Zafarmomen, 03 Dec 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Bhupendra Raut, 31 Mar 2026
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4585', Adway Mitra, 09 Dec 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Bhupendra Raut, 31 Mar 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4585', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Jan 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Bhupendra Raut, 31 Mar 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Bhupendra Raut on behalf of the Authors (31 Mar 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (11 Apr 2026) by Nili Harnik
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (26 Apr 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Apr 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (01 May 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (03 May 2026) by Nili Harnik
AR by Bhupendra Raut on behalf of the Authors (12 Jun 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 Jun 2026) by Nili Harnik
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (20 Jun 2026)
ED: Publish as is (20 Jun 2026) by Nili Harnik
AR by Bhupendra Raut on behalf of the Authors (21 Jun 2026)
Manuscript
The manuscript presents a regime-based analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall for JJAS 1961–2018, using:
IMD 0.25° daily rainfall
k-means clustering to identify 11 spatial rainfall regimes
NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis-1 to characterize circulation, pressure, and moisture anomalies for each cluster
Markov-chain style transition probabilities between regimes
A decomposition of rainfall change (1961–1989 vs 1990–2018) into frequency vs intensity contributions by regime and region.
The study aims to link objectively derived rainfall regimes to synoptic drivers (depressions, trough position, breaks, etc.), examine their transition dynamics, and use these regimes to interpret long-term regional rainfall changes (particularly over Thar & Kutch, Indo-Gangetic Plains, and Northeast India).