The role of atmospheric circulation changes in Western European warm season heat extremes

Noest, Douwe Sierk; Pinto, Izidine; Thompson, Vikki; Coumou, Dim

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 1

Research article

|

24 Feb 2026

Research article |

| 24 Feb 2026

The role of atmospheric circulation changes in Western European warm season heat extremes

Douwe Sierk Noest, Izidine Pinto, Vikki Thompson, and Dim Coumou

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026-supplement

Data sets

Select a daily field KNMI Climate Explorer https://climexp.knmi.nl/selectdailyfield2.cgi?id=someone@somewhere

MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical (20230220) J. Ridley et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6109

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical (20230220) H. Tatebe and M. Watanabe https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5603

Model code and software

Western_EU_warm_season_heat_extremes D. S. Noest https://github.com/douwe3/Western_EU_warm_season_heat_extremes

Short summary

Spring and summer heat extremes in Western Europe have intensified much faster than the global average since 1950. Spring warming is mainly driven by thermodynamical effects, while circulation changes explain over a third of local trends, with more frequent southerly flow patterns contributing. Climate models capture extreme trends in individual runs but underestimate observed warming. Open questions about forced change versus natural variability remain.