Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Research article
 | 
24 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 24 Feb 2026

The role of atmospheric circulation changes in Western European warm season heat extremes

Douwe Sierk Noest, Izidine Pinto, Vikki Thompson, and Dim Coumou

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Short summary
Spring and summer heat extremes in Western Europe have intensified much faster than the global average since 1950. Spring warming is mainly driven by thermodynamical effects, while circulation changes explain over a third of local trends, with more frequent southerly flow patterns contributing. Climate models capture extreme trends in individual runs but underestimate observed warming. Open questions about forced change versus natural variability remain.
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