Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-843-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-843-2026
Research article
 | 
27 May 2026
Research article |  | 27 May 2026

Dry and moist convective upper bounds for near-surface temperatures

Quentin Nicolas and Belinda Hotz

Related authors

Sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to wind speed with implications for future projections
Quentin Nicolas and William R. Boos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 231–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-231-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-231-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Arakawa, A. and Schubert, W. H.: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment, Part I, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674–701, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0674:IOACCE>2.0.CO;2, 1974. a
Bastos, A., Orth, R., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Gentine, P., Joetzjer, E., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., O, S., Pongratz, J., and Sitch, S.: Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021. a
Blay-Carreras, E., Pino, D., Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J., van de Boer, A., De Coster, O., Darbieu, C., Hartogensis, O., Lohou, F., Lothon, M., and Pietersen, H.: Role of the residual layer and large-scale subsidence on the development and evolution of the convective boundary layer, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4515–4530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4515-2014, 2014. a
Businger, J. A., Wyngaard, J. C., Izumi, Y., and Bradley, E. F.: Flux-profile relationships in the atmospheric surface layer, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 181–189, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0181:FPRITA>2.0.CO;2, 1971. a
Byrne, M. P. and O'Gorman, P. A.: Land–ocean warming contrast over a wide range of climates: convective quasi-equilibrium theory and idealized simulations, J. Climate, 26, 4000–4016, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00262.1, 2013. a
Download
Short summary
Heatwaves are intensifying at a fast pace, and how much further they can strengthen is unknown. Our study seeks to estimate a physical upper limit to surface air temperature. We show that, unlike what recent work suggested, the intensity of the most extreme heatwaves may not be constrained by the onset of thunderstorms. Instead, the limit is set by the development of a several-kilometer-deep layer of well-mixed air above the ground, and modulated by a very hot and unstable near-surface layer.
Share