Predictability of cyclones associated with heavy precipitation events in the Sahara

Ling, Guorong; Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla; Armon, Moshe

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 2

Research article

|

12 Jun 2026

Research article |

| 12 Jun 2026

Predictability of cyclones associated with heavy precipitation events in the Sahara

Guorong Ling, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, and Moshe Armon

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

Predictability of cyclones associated with heavy precipitation events in the Sahara Guorong Ling et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19557134

Short summary

This research examines how well storms that bring heavy rain to the Sahara can be predicted. Using satellite observations and ensemble weather forecasts, we show that predictability varies by season, location, and circulation pattern, with an upper limit of about ten days. These insights can improve early flood warnings and support better planning for scarce water resources in desert regions.